Funding: HORIZON-MSCA-2024-PF-01-01

PI: Dr Sotirios Argyroudis | Marie Curie Research Fellow: Dr. George Karagiannakis

Duration: Oct 2025 – Sept 2027, Budget: € 260 347,92

The META-GRID project is a cutting-edge initiative under the Horizon MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships program. Our mission is to enhance the resilience of Europe’s power grid infrastructure against increasing climate hazards such as wildfires, windstorms, snowstorms, and floods.

Partners:

Brunel University of London (Coordinator)
European Commission Joint Research Center (Ispra, Italy)
Électricité de France (Paris, France)
Research and Innovation Center (Nicosia, Cyprus)

See more on Cordis: https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101209643)


Why META-GRID Matters for Europe?

The European power grid infrastructure is the backbone of other critical infrastructures like health-care, water, gas, transportation and communication. According to ENTSO-E 2022 report, 18-23% of European power disruptions from 2018 to 2022 were due to climate hazards, potentially exceeding 33% due to under-reporting. The World Bank stated that natural hazard-related power outages in 2010-2016 lasted four times longer than those from other causes. A 2023 EC JRC report found a twofold increase in average interruption frequency due to extreme weather events across 27 EU+UK countries from 2004 to 2016. Events like the 2017 Wielkopolskie windstorm, 2018 Vaia snowstorm, 2021 European floods, and 2023 Thessaly windstorm and flood exposed power grid vulnerabilities. These incidents caused significant damage to transmission towers and substations, leading to prolonged power outages and millions of euros in repair and liability costs. Also, the risk due to power grid failures is expected to increase by virtue of climate change, ageing and rising energy demand that drives grid extension.

Objectives

Despite recent events emphasizing the climate risk urgency, there remains a notable absence of comprehensive vulnerability and recovery models for transmission towers and substations. These models are crucial for reliable resilience assessment,as described in the publication by the Fellow.

META-GRID focuses on four Objectives (Obj) as follows:

Obj.1: Deliver a novel meta-fragility tool for EU transmission towers for critical climate hazards
An algorithm will simulate the performance of transmission towers under various wind and ice scenarios across EU typologies. It will identify key parameters like height and material ageing that influence structural response. Fragility functions will be derived to support resilience assessment in vulnerable regions.
Obj.2: Develop unique restoration & damage functions for critical hazards of EU transmission towers and substations
Restoration and damage data will be collected through interviews and questionnaires with power operators.
Adjustment factors will account for differences in restoration time and damage extent based on local practices. Probabilistic models will capture uncertainties and enhance the reliability of damage assessments.
Obj.3: Deliver rapid resilience assessment and mapping of power grid assets exposed to diverse hazard scenarios and inform adaptation investments for EU climate policy.
A global resilience index will assess outage risks and recovery times in two critical regions.
Adaptation benefits will be quantified using fragility and restoration models.
The analysis will support investment decisions to improve robustness and reduce downtime.
Obj.4: Deliver an open-access web-based toolkit for Pan-European resilience based climate adaptation
A web-based toolkit will provide open access to models, algorithms, and key results.
It will include downloadable tools, worksheets, and visual outputs on adaptation benefits.
The platform will support EU-wide efforts in climate-resilient infrastructure planning.

META-GRID Methodological Framework


Relevant Publications:

  • Karagiannakis, G., Panteli, M., & Argyroudis, S. (2024). Fragility Modeling of Power Grid Infrastructure for Addressing Climate Change Risks and Adaptation. WIREs Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.930

Power grid assets like transmission towers and substations designed based on outdated (past) hazard assessments face increased fragility from climate hazards (e.g., windstorms, floods) due to the impact of climate change. Fragility models that link the intensity of climate stressors to asset damage probability are essential for assessing vulnerabilities and quantifying adaptation benefits in a changing climate. These models can be used to guide efforts to enhance infrastructure resilience

  • Karagiannakis, G., Panteli, M. & Argyroudis, S. (2023),  Fragility assessment of the power grid infrastructure towards climate resilience, 63rd European Safety, Reliability & Data Association (ESReDA) Seminar,  October 25th – 26th, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italyhttps://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC139101

Relevant EU policies and strategies:

  • EU Directive (2022), “Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the Resilience of Critical Entities”, page 4, art15, https://ur-lex.eu/legal
  • European Commission (2023), “Horizon Europe Strategic Plan 2025-2027 Analysis”, page 153, on.europa.eu/en/publication detail
  • European Commission (2021). Communication from the commission, “Forging a climate-resilient Europe – the new EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change”, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:52021DC0082.
  • EC, & EEA. The Adaptation Support Tool of the Climate-ADAPT platform, partnership between the European Commission (EC) and the European Environment Agency (EEA). https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/knowledge/tools/adaptation-support-tool

How to cite the project:

META-GRID: cliMate rEsilience assessmenT and Adaptation of the European power GRID, HORIZON EUROPE-MSCA-2024-PF-01-01, Grant agreement ID: 101209643, DOI: 10.3030/101209643, funded under Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA).